OTTAWA – December 15, 2011 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity rose slightly in November 2011 from the previous month. Highlights: Sales activity rose slightly (+0.5 per cent) from October to November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Year-to-date sales remained in line with the 10 year average, but pulled further ahead of last year’s levels. The number of newly listed homes was down 3.4 per cent from October to November. The national housing market remains balanced, but is edging closer to seller’s market territory. The national average price posted a 4.6 per cent year-over-year gain in November, the smallest increase since January. Sales activity recorded through the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards and Associations in Canada edged upward by one-half of a percentage point. This marks the third straight month in which national activity was up from the previous month’s levels. Activity rose in about 60 per cent of all local markets with a record November in the Halifax-Dartmouth region offsetting a dip in sales in Toronto. “The Canadian housing market is proving resilient in the face of ongoing global economic and financial uncertainty, to the benefit of Canadian economic growth,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “That said, some housing markets are picking up while others are holding steady or consolidating, so buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to understand current and prospective trends in their local housing market.” Throughout most months in 2011, actual (not seasonally adjusted) national home sales were in line with the 10-year average. November sales marked a break in that pattern, climbing seven per cent above the 10 year average and reaching the fourth highest level on record for the month. “Toward the end of every year, there’s a natural inclination to compare how momentum for national sales activity and average price compare to the year before,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “National sales activity picked up late last year, and November’s results suggest that a similar trend may be playing out again this year. By contrast, national average price also picked up toward the end of last year, whereas this year it has held steady after having peaked in the spring.” “With interest rates expected to remain low for longer, the housing sector will no doubt be closely watched for signs of excess,” added Klump. “That said, current trends for resale housing and new home construction suggest that tightened mortgage regulations are working as intended and fostering economic stability in Canada.” A total of 432,048 homes have traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems so far this year, up 2.1 per cent from levels in the first 11 months of 2010. The year-to-date sales figure remains broadly in line (+0.7 per cent) with the average for that period from 2001 to 2010. Compared to October, the number of newly listed homes fell 3.4 per cent in November. New listings slipped lower in more than two-thirds of Canadian housing markets, with Toronto, the Hamilton-Burlington region, and Calgary contributing most to the national decline. The national housing market remains balanced, but is edging closer to seller’s market territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 55.5 per cent in November, up from 53.4 per cent in October. This marks the third month in which the national ratio has risen, and it now stands at its highest reading since the spring. Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 percent, just over half of local markets in Canada were balanced in November, while a third of markets qualified as sellers’ markets. The number of months of inventory nationally stood at six months at the end of November. It has held steady at about this level since April, which is above levels posted during the first quarter. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2011 stood at $360,396. This represents a year-over-year increase of 4.6 per cent, its smallest increase since January. PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month. CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales summary data released by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) for October2011, shows that 301 single family units sold, an increase of 24 per cent compared to September 2010 but close to last month’s 318 units. The average price of a single family home sold in October 2011 through the VIREB MLS® system was $325,308 up two per cent from the $318,609 posted in September 2010. VIREB President Jim Stewart says; “We continue to see normal market conditions in the VIREB area and around the province. There doesn’t seem to be much downward or upward pressure on prices,” he added. There were 566 single family homes listed in October, bringing the active single family homes available through the VIREB MLS® system to 2,695 down slightly from the 2,960 available at the end of September. “It’s a great time for consumers to buy, with a good selection of homes and stable pricing“, said VIREB President Elect Guy Bezeau. For the 12-month period from the end of October 2010 to October 2011, average sale prices across VIREB’s six zones saw: Campbell River slip one per cent (to $291,451), the Comox Valley up 10 per cent (to $352,064), Nanaimo was up five per cent (to $356,453), Parksville/Qualicum rose six per cent (to $366,226), Port Alberni/West Coast was up three per cent (to $219,085) and the Cowichan Valley was down one per cent (to $334,061).
VIREB represents approximately 1,070 REALTOR® members in more than 85 member offices on Vancouver Island (north of Victoria). Visit our website for updated information at: www.vireb.com
The Bank of Canada kept its trend-setting Bank Rate at 1.25 per cent on October 25, 2011. This marks the ninth consecutive announcement in which interest rates have been held steady.
The tone of the accompanying statement was very dovish, with the Bank noting that “the global economy has slowed markedly as several downside risks to the projection outlined in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) have been realized.”
Of particular note, the Bank said it now expects a “brief recession” in the Eurozone. The Bank remains of the opinion that the euro-area crisis will be contained, but flagged obvious downside risks to that assumption.
As a result of this and other factors, the Bank has downgraded its forecast Canadian economic growth this year (2.1% compared to 2.8% in the July MPR) and for 2012 (1.9% compared to 2.6% in the July MPR).
That said, the outlook for growth in 2013 was upgraded to 2.9% from 2.1%, indicating the Bank believes that anticipated stronger growth will eventually be achieved. Along with the return of more robust economic activity being pushed further out into the future, core inflation is now expected to remain below the Bank’s 2% target until the end of 2013.
What it all means is that interest rates will likely be on hold even longer. Expectations as to how long it would be before the Bank hikes rates had previously centered around the fall of 2012, although it will now more likely be into 2013 before the Bank begins to tighten monetary policy from current levels.
As of October 25, 2011, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 5.29 per cent. This is down 0.1 percentage points from 5.39 per cent on September 7, when the Bank made its last policy interest rate announcement.
The Bank will make its next scheduled rate announcement on December 6th, 2011.
Vancouver, BC – August 25, 2011.The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2011 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in BC are forecast to increase 3.8 per cent from 74,640 units in 2010 to 77,500 units this year, increasing a further 3.6 per cent to 80,300 units in 2012.
“Slower than expected employment growth is expected to keep BC home sales below their ten-year average through 2012,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, weaker global economic growth and recent uncertainty in the equity markets points to continued low mortgage interest rates which will help underpin housing demand.”
“Following a decade where unit sales broke all records, consumer demand over the next few years will be relatively moderate,” added Muir. The ten-year BC MLS® residential sales average is 87,600 units. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.
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Vancouver, BC – August 25, 2011.The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2011 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in BC are forecast to increase 3.8 per cent from 74,640 units in 2010 to 77,500 units this year, increasing a further 3.6 per cent to 80,300 units in 2012.
“Slower than expected employment growth is expected to keep BC home sales below their ten-year average through 2012,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, weaker global economic growth and recent uncertainty in the equity markets points to continued low mortgage interest rates which will help underpin housing demand.”
“Following a decade where unit sales broke all records, consumer demand over the next few years will be relatively moderate,” added Muir. The ten-year BC MLS® residential sales average is 87,600 units. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.
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Vancouver, BC – August 25, 2011.The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2011 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in BC are forecast to increase 3.8 per cent from 74,640 units in 2010 to 77,500 units this year, increasing a further 3.6 per cent to 80,300 units in 2012.
“Slower than expected employment growth is expected to keep BC home sales below their ten-year average through 2012,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, weaker global economic growth and recent uncertainty in the equity markets points to continued low mortgage interest rates which will help underpin housing demand.”
“Following a decade where unit sales broke all records, consumer demand over the next few years will be relatively moderate,” added Muir. The ten-year BC MLS® residential sales average is 87,600 units. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.
